How North Shropshire caused a by-election shock - and what could happen this year

The fallout saw the Lib Dems stake a memorable December 2021 by-election win, with one of the largest vote swings ever as they claimed the North Shropshire constituency for the first time.

A unique combination of circumstances undoubtedly played a part in the result – and even started a chain of events that ultimately led to the end of Johnson's time as Prime Minister, but the question now is what happens on Thursday, July 4.

In the intervening period the political landscape has changed significantly, while Helen Morgan has spent two and a half years operating as the constituency's first ever Lib Dem MP.

The national picture predicts another miserable night for the Conservatives, and there is no doubt that the seat is a key battleground for the Liberal Democrats – a fact illustrated by the arrival of party leader Ed Davey so early in the campaign.

YouGov's poll released on Monday made grim reading for Rishi Sunak's bid to form another government, but it also shows the Lib Dems are on track to retain what has been a die-hard Conservative area.

It predicts the Lib Dems taking 40 per cent of the vote, followed by 25 per cent for the Conservatives, 19 per cent for Labour, 11 per cent for Reform, and three per cent for the the Green Party.

Those figures point towards a comfortable ride for the Lib Dems, but campaigners on the ground are not entertaining any complacency, warning they expect it to be tight, as they seek to retain an area that had been Conservative for nearly 40 years.

The battle will undoubtedly be influenced by the spectre of Reform – and even more so following Nigel Farage's decision to once again place himself at the centre of the party's election bid, as well as revealing plans to contest the Clacton seat himself.

Mrs Morgan is standing for re-election, while the Conservatives have selected Simon Baynes as their candidate to contest the seat.

Mr Baynes has been the Conservative MP for Clwyd South, across the border, since 2019.

But, with the constituency being abolished as part of widespread boundary changes Mr Baynes has been selected to move over and attempt to secure re-election to parliament.

The move potentially corrects what was seen as one of the mistakes of the party's 2021 campaign, where they selected a candidate from outside the constituency.

For Labour Natalie Rowley is seeking to improve on a 2019 showing that saw the party reduced to also-rans, hoping for a boost from the sky-high national opinion poll predictions.

The joker in the pack will be Mark Whittle, the current deputy mayor of Market Drayton who is standing for Reform. In 2019 the party only made it into fifth place, but they will certainly be expecting a greater influence on the contest – particularly given the re-emergence of Mr Farage.

The Green Party candidate is Craig David Emery, and his bid comes on the back of huge success for his party in Oswestry, where the Greens control the town council. If he can translate the success from the local elections then the Greens could see a markedly improved showing come polling day.