Playing the numbers game in League One
It's in Shrewsbury Town's hands – but it looks like their form against the big boys could decide their fate.
Micky Mellon's side have one advantage over their rivals in the battle to stay up – a game in hand, and two matches on Blackpool.
But the fact it's a local derby away to promotion-chasing Walsall could mean it's not the advantage they want.
However, Town's ability to pull a result just when it's least expected – like at Burton Albion and Sheffield United – should prevail.
They will need that because they have what looks like the toughest run-in.
Bradford are flying and it will take all of Shrewsbury's determination to hold them to a draw on Saturday.
But their chances against another Yorkshire side three days later look better, and with 10th-placed Sheffield United nine points outside the play-off zone and having little to play for, completing the double against the Blades would do Town very nicely.
Gillingham away looks a tougher prospect. Even though they're not on top form, the Gills still need points to get into the play-offs and they're not conceding many, so it's difficult to see Town getting anything at Priestfield. Safety should come, however, with a draw at home to mid-table Peterborough to avoid any last-day drama at Swindon.
Talking of which, the Robins should be home and hosed with home victories over Bury and Chesterfield before a trip to Rochdale prior to hosting Shrewsbury on the final day. And with Swindon boasting the division's 23-goal top scorer in Nicky Ajose, it would be foolish to write them off.
Like Swindon, in-form Chesterfield can see off any lingering doubts about their safety in front of their own fans by taking four points in the derby visits of Sheffield United and Doncaster before trips to Swindon and Bradford sandwiching Bury at home. Oldham's improved home form and meaner defence of late should see them survive by beating rivals Fleetwood and already-relegated Crewe without having to need anything at Millwall.
All of Fleetwood's remaining games are against teams in the thick of it at the top or bottom, but although it's difficult to see them getting three points against Oldham or Millwall, and a derby victory over Fylde coast rivals Blackpool could send the Tangerines closer to the trapdoor before nailing Crewe on the final day.
Blackpool's biggest problem could be running out of games – and their fate could be sealed in the north west with trips to Rochdale and Fleetwood before they host leaders Wigan prior to a last-day trip to Peterborough.
No team has dropped like Doncaster, with a dizzying decline since the turn of the year.
Sitting eight points adrift with only 15 to play for, it's difficult to see them turning it around with Wigan and Burton still to play.
And although games against nothing-to-play-for pair Coventry and Crewe could offer some crumbs of comfort, it looks the Rovers' ship has run too far off course to turn around.
Similarly, Colchester's improvement looks to have arrived too late. Kevin Keen's side are on the same points as Doncaster, and although they could well take points off Peterborough and Crewe in their next two outings, you would expect Burton to pick up again and I don't think Barnsley and Rochdale will offer the U's much.
So, if my predictions are correct, Shrewsbury will survive by six points, with the bottom four a case of 'as you were' with Blackpool, Doncaster and Colchester joining Crewe in League Two.
Over to you, Micky!
