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Tories are safe bet for clean sweep in Shropshire and to win big majority

By Mark Andrews | Telford | General Election 2019 | Published:

The Tories are set for a clean sweep across Shropshire in next week’s election, according to the bookies – helping propel Boris Johnson to a healthy majority.

Betting prices from the website Oddschecker suggest the Conservatives will have a majority of 52 seats. The West Midlands and the Welsh borders are set to be a key battleground.

As well as retaining all five seats in Shropshire and neighbouring Montgomeryshire, punters also expect the Conservatives to take Wrexham and Clwyd South for the first time.

In the Black Country, it is thought West Bromwich West will turn blue for the first time in history, along with the ultra-tight marginal of Dudley North.

The betting odds also suggest Wolverhampton South West and Wolverhampton North East will turn blue.

The betting markets suggest that the Tories will add an extra 34 seats from the 317 total they accrued in 2017, with Labour losing 52. Such a result would see the SNP gain an extra nine seats.

It is expected that the Tories will retain the crucial marginal of Telford, which they have held since 2015. with slender majorities of 730 and 720. Lucy Allan is clear favourite to hold onto the seat, with odds of 1/5, while Labour’s Katrina Gilman is 10/3.

Tory Daniel Kawczynski is expected to hold on to Shrewsbury and Atcham, with a typical price of 1/12, while Labour’s Julia Buckley is 8/1.

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At the start of the campaign, the seat was identified by pollsters as the one Labour needed to take to win a majority of one.

Upset

In Ludlow, North Shropshire and The Wrekin, the Tories appear to be a shoo-in at 1/200 each.

For those fancying an upset, Labour is 20/1 in The Wrekin, 30/1 in North Shropshire and 40-1 in Ludlow.

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Montgomeryshire was held by flamboyant Liberal Democrat Lembit Opik until it was taken by the Tories in 2010, but the betting suggests there is little chance of a Lib-Dem comeback this time around. Tory Craig Williams is odds-on at 1/6 to beat Lib Dem challenger Kishan Devani at 4/1.

Bigger surprises come in the traditional Labour seats of Wrexham and Clwyd South. Labour has won every election in Wrexham since 1935, although in 1981 MP Tom Ellis defected to the SDP. However, this time around, Tory Sarah Atherton is 4/11 to win the seat, with Labour’s Mary Wimbury trailing at 2/1.

In Clwyd South, Tory Simon Baynes is the slight favourite at 4/5 to become the constituency’s first Tory MP, ousting Labour incumbent Susan Elan Jones who is priced at 10/11. When analysing which party is favourite in each of the 650 constituencies in the UK, the Conservatives are favourites in 351 seats compared to 210 for Labour.

The Tories are 1/20 to win the most seats and 4/9 to win a majority.

A Labour majority can be backed at 25/1, with Mr Corbyn’s party 14/1 to take the most seats.

The Brexit Party are 3/1 to win one or more seats, while the Lib Dems are a shade off odds-on (10/11) to win between 10 and 19 seats.

Mark Andrews

By Mark Andrews
@MAndrews_Star

Senior news writer for the Shropshire Star specialising in in-depth features and commentary, investigative reporting and political matters.

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