Fact check: Keir Starmer’s popularity, Muslim mayors and AI Epstein image
Round-up of fact checks from the last few days compiled by Full Fact.
This round-up of claims has been compiled by Full Fact, the UK’s largest fact checking charity working to find, expose and counter the harms of bad information.
Is Sir Keir Starmer the ‘most unpopular’ PM in recent times?
Earlier this month, amid political turmoil in Westminster, we saw several claims about the popularity of the Prime Minister. Some suggested it is at historic lows, and that Sir Keir Starmer is the “most unpopular” Prime Minister either in history, or since recent polls began.
There are various ways pollsters measure prime ministerial popularity, which ask different questions and cover different time periods. When we asked polling expert Sir John Curtice how it can be tracked, he told us it “depends a bit on what you want to measure — perceived performance or likeability”, adding that these are “not necessarily the same thing”.
One measure that some of the claims we’ve seen appear to be based on is ‘satisfaction ratings’, as polled by market research firm Ipsos.
Last September Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK politics at Ipsos, said Sir Keir’s “personal satisfaction ratings” were “the worst for any Prime Minister polled by Ipsos since we first started asking the question in 1977”.
This was based on Ipsos polling which had found 13% of voters in September said they were satisfied with Sir Keir. Earlier this month, Ipsos reported Sir Keir’s satisfaction rating had improved slightly in January, and was at 15%, though a 77% dissatisfaction rating meant overall Sir Keir’s net satisfaction score was -62.
Our analysis of the Ipsos data suggests that on all three ways of examining these figures — satisfaction, dissatisfaction and net satisfaction — Sir Keir’s scores at some points in recent months have been lower than other PMs since 1977.
However, some other polls suggest that fewer people approved of or favoured Liz Truss while she was PM.
For example, YouGov asks people if they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the PM. In January, 18% said they had a favourable opinion of Sir Keir and 75% did not, leading to a net favourability rating of -57. In October 2022, however, Ms Truss received a net favourability score of -70. (YouGov’s most recent results on this measure came out last week, after the claims we’ve mentioned above were made, and showed a slight improvement for Sir Keir, with a new net favourability score of -47.)
Opinium measures net approval of the PM. Earlier this month, it found Sir Keir’s net approval was -44, after asking people “To what extent do you approve or disapprove of… the way Keir Starmer is handling his job as Prime Minister”. In October 2022, Ms Truss’s net approval was -47. Last month Opinium put Sir Keir’s net approval at -46, which it said was his “joint lowest score ever”—this matches Theresa May in May 2019.
There are several other ways pollsters measure feedback on PMs, including asking about their “likeability” and how “well” they are doing. For more details see our full fact check.
It’s worth noting that most of the recent polls we’ve mentioned above relating to Sir Keir were conducted prior to February 9, when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on Sir Keir to resign.
No evidence 75% of England’s mayors are Muslim
A claim that 75% of England’s mayors are Muslim has been shared thousands of times online. But we can find no evidence to suggest it is true.
There are several different types of mayors in England, including elected metro mayors, elected local authority mayors, and civic mayors who are appointed by local councils and carry out ceremonial duties and chair meetings.
Full Fact could only find evidence that three of the 27 directly elected mayors in England are Muslim. These are Sir Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, and elected local authority mayors Rokhsana Fiaz (London Borough of Newham) and Lutfur Rahman (London Borough of Tower Hamlets).
The Local Government Association told us it does not hold an official list of the country’s civic mayors, but we’ve seen no evidence to suggest as many as 75% are Muslim.
London is the most religiously diverse region in England according to the 2021 census, with 15% of residents identifying as Muslim. But our research of the capital’s current civic mayors found just one who appears to be a Muslim (although the Speaker of Tower Hamlets, who fulfils the same ceremonial role as the civic mayor in other councils, is also Muslim).
Many posts we’ve seen sharing the claim that 75% of England’s mayors are Muslim include an image of 18 people, apparently suggesting these are examples of current Muslim mayors. While all of the people pictured appear to identify as Muslim and have been mayors at one point, according to Full Fact’s analysis only five are currently mayors of their respective towns and cities.
Image of Jeffrey Epstein ‘alive in Tel Aviv’ is AI-generated
A widely shared image that social media users are claiming shows Jeffrey Epstein alive and walking down a street in Tel Aviv, Israel, is fake and was made using artificial intelligence (AI).
The image, which shows a bearded man wearing sunglasses crossing a road, has been shared thousands of times online. But it is not a real image of Epstein, who died in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.
When Full Fact put the image into Google’s reverse image search, it was flagged as “made with Google AI”. This means it contains a SynthID digital watermark which is undetectable with the human eye, but is embedded into content which has been generated or altered with Google AI products.
The Hebrew street signs in the image are also gibberish. There is no such street called “Haangus Ev.” in Tel Aviv, or in Israel. Some uncropped versions circulating online also feature a visible Google Gemini watermark.
