By-election results could be the beginning of the end for Rishi Sunak
Sounding more like the boss of a failing NHS trust trying to lay the blame at his predecessors, Tory chairman Greg Hands said 'legacy issues' were responsible for his party's two catastrophic defeats.
Now one could be charitable, and say that Mr Hands is obviously a 'glass quarter full' kinda guy. Or one could be honest, and say the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-election results are so bad for the Conservatives that even the most true-blue party activist will struggle to find a straw to clutch on to.
Granted, the margins of both Labour victories were small, and Mr Hands is right to say that by-election results are not a good indicator of the national picture. Indeed, it would still be reasonable to expect the Conservatives to retake these seats come the General Election next year.
But what no amount of spin can explain away the magnitude of the swing away from the governing party.
Sarah Edwards' win in Tamworth was a watershed moment for Labour, the second highest by-election swing to the party of all time. But the loss of Mid Bedfordshire, a Conservative stronghold for 92 years, is arguably even more dramatic. Nadine Dorries' 24,466 majority is the Tories' largest to be overturned at a by-election since 1945.
If Labour can win in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, Sir Keir Starmer will surely think he can win anywhere now.
While the manner in which the elections were called, in the wake of a scandal surrounding former Tamworth MP Chris Pincher, not to mention the bizarre and prolonged resignation of Mrs Dorries, may have played a role, the results also reflect a deeper shift which is likely to be reflected across the country.
With Brexit now safely delivered, Red Wall voters now worry less about Labour reneging on the 2016 referendum. And while Mr Hands may have a point that there is no great outpouring of public affection for Sir Keir, the Labour leader has managed to neutralise the toxicity of the Jeremy Corbyn years. Working-class folk in the Midlands now think it is safe to vote Labour.
Indeed, Sir Keir will doubtless view his dominance in the polls as vindication of his strong line in purging the party of hardliners such as Mr Corbyn, Diane Abbot and Rebecca Long-Bailey.
It could also be argued that what is being played out is just the natural cycle of events. It is rare for any party in a liberal democracy to win five general elections in a row. For a party to do that in the middle of an economic crisis, on the back of a divisive referendum, a pandemic, two major global conflicts and five different leaders – one of them being Liz Truss – would surely be to defy the law of gravity.
What is truly astounding, though, is the speed with which the public mood has changed. It is just 29 months since Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a stunning victory in the Hartlepool by-election, and Sir Keir was under mounting pressure for his lacklustre public image. But politics is a long game, and Sir Keir's patience appears to be paying off.
Maybe 'glass quarter full' Greg Hands will take the view that if public opinion can shift quickly in one direction, it can turn back just as fast.
The problem for Rishi Sunak is that he does not have time on his side. He approaches the next general election like a jaded football team that is 3-0 down, with 20 minutes left on the clock. He not only has to play out of his skin, but he also needs the other lot to score at least a couple of own goals.
It is one year on Tuesday since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister. Thursday's by-election may be the moment when it became clear he has only another year left.
