As the football transfer window slams shut, the wheeler-dealing starts at Westminster

And now our attentions turn to the shenanigans at Westminster, where the Prime Minister has already begun the shake-up of his team, and where the speculation is even wilder about the size of the hole in the public finances. Is it £20 billion, or is it the £41.2 billion reported by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research? And most importantly of all, what taxes will be going up to fund this?

But first to the transfer window. Sir Keir Starmer isn't the type of fellow who spills the beans to journalists out the window of his car, and his mini-reshuffle is probably not going set the public's pulses racing. 

The big move has been for Darren Jones, not the biggest name in the Government, but perhaps best described as Sir Keir Starmer's answer to Michael Gove. Admired by some for his bright mind and reformist zeal, but his direct style is not to the taste of all his colleagues. Until now, he has served as Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Rachel Reeves' No.2, and the most junior role in cabinet. He has now been brought into Downing Street as Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, which sounds like a promotion, but is actually outside of the cabinet, so could be considered a step back. Mr Jones will still attend cabinet meetings, though, and the understanding is that the Prime Minister wanted to bring in a bit of his energy and dynamism to perk up the lacklustre Downing Street machine. 

He is also adept at handling a media storm: when he faced criticism for his analogy between benefit cuts and children's pocket money, he didn't try to front it out, he simply came back the next day and admitted it was a tactless thing to say. He earned a lot of credit for his honesty. He's one to watch for the future, our Darren. 

You may be wondering who held the post of Chief Secretary to the PM before our Dazza? The answer is , there wasn't one. It is a new post he has created as he looks ahead to the autumn budget, which could well be Sir Keir's last chance to turn around his dire poll ratings.

Mr Jones's move means a promotion to the cabinet for the little-known James Murray, who entered parliament in 2019, after serving for three years as deputy to mayor of London Sadiq Khan.

Released on a free is communications director, James Lyons, having only been appointed in October.

Former deputy governor of the Bank of England, Baroness Shafik is the Prime Minister's new economic adviser. It has been said that Rachel Reeves has been calling for more financial expertise for some time. However, the Baroness is not a figure who is entirely without controversy. In a previous example of blue-sky thinking, she suggested levying redistributive taxes on wealthier pensioners and those who have more valuable properties. 

“Those with comfortable pension pots must be expected to pay more to the common good,” she said in May 2023. And given how well the last attempt went at redistributing money away from pensioners, what could possibly go wrong?

Indeed, the U-turn on winter fuel payments, and the climbdown on welfare reform has left the Chancellor with precious little room to manoeuvre come budget time. A combination of sluggish growth, US tariffs and rising borrowing costs have left her with a financial puzzle that makes PSR and Financial Fair Play look a walk in the park. 

With welfare and pension cuts probably off limits, departmental spending already set in the Comprehensive Spending Review, the Chancellor is reportedly looking at a 'mansion tax' to raise extra funds. But if the deficit really is as bad as being reported, is that going to raise enough? It sounds unlikely.  An increase in fuel duty would also be unpopular, and might also struggle to raise the funds given the fall in petrol and diesel car sales.

But if Miss Reeves finds herself forced to pull the trigger and raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance, it really could be game over. 

If only they had some star players to sell....