Political column – May 2

I have a cod theory that most of the current theories about coronavirus will in the fullness of time be proven to be cod theories.

And while we're on the subject of cod, I also suspect there are a whole shoal of red herrings out there.

Just look at it. There is no rhyme nor reason to this disease. An advanced country with an excellent healthcare system and which acted early – Italy – has been prostrated, but impoverished nations in Africa where you would have feared it would spread unchecked like wildfire have, so far, and let's pray it is not a temporary reprieve, dodged the bullet. Nobody knows why.

Ditto, India.

It's because they've been better at their lockdowns than us? Yeah, right.

The reason Germany has had fewer cases than Britain is, so the thinking goes, because Germany, with that implied stereotype of Teutonic efficiency etc etc, had a more rigorous, extensive, and prompt testing regime. That's assumption presented as fact.

And this week we've been served up some models for getting through the crisis, with approving reports about Iceland and New Zealand.

It's hardly comparing like with like.

There may be lessons for Britain to learn. Alternatively, there may be precisely no lessons for Britain to learn from the experiences of two remote island nations with small populations.

The population of Iceland's capital city is less than the population of Telford, and the island's total population of 364,000 is less than that of Wolverhampton and Walsall combined. In Iceland there are eight people per square mile.

New Zealand's population is 4.8 million, a density of 46 per square mile.

In England the population density is 1,010 people per square mile.

Then there's the Soviet-style obsession with the testing figures, and that target of 100,000 by the end of April. Commentators and some politicians geared themselves up for failure so they could say na na na-na na.

Now, if I were a highly-paid government PR advisor, I would say that Soviet-style targets require Soviet-style solutions.

"Minister, issue a press release saying that 100,001 coronavirus tests were carried out on April 30, and that the government triumphantly met its goal."

How would anybody know you had simply made it up? There would be no way to check.

In reality, of course, I am against lying (I may get things wrong, but that's different).

When it comes to statistics, we got 'em. We can give you whatever statistic you want and manipulate it in whatever way we want. They are great things to bandy about, as repressive regimes around the world know.

The fixation on the testing figures is another of those red herrings which are being served up by those who see coronavirus not just as a global pandemic but as some pseudo political issue.

Rather than the absolute numbers, I am much more interested in the value of the tests that are done – how the tests and the results can be used as part of the overall strategy to tackle coronavirus, target it, trace it, treat it, and hopefully eventually cure it.

The new figures fixation will be the international deaths league table which "proves" the UK has the worst record in Europe. It doesn't. Actually, nobody knows, at least not yet.

If you've got this far and have read the above, you may have come to the conclusion that I don't know what I'm talking about.

That's actually my point. With coronavirus, even the experts admit there is so much we don't know.

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"The clock is ticking."

Oh no, he's back. And he is like one of those Bond villains with all the familiar cliched catchphrases. No, Mr Bond, I expect you to die!

Britain needs to be taught a lesson!

Just about the only thing to be said about the coronavirus crisis is that it has given us all a break from a Brexit news agenda and its star performer, dreary droopy drawers Michel (as it happens, happily recovered from the virus).

With tens of thousands of people dying, it really does put trade talks into some kind of perspective.

Britain is seeking a Canada-style trade deal (without the Wallonia veto this time) of the sort Michel, no less, had canvassed at the very start of the process years ago. Trouble is, Monsieur Barnier, whose words are hung on like tablets of supreme wisdom from the gods by the likes of Ian Blackford, has belatedly realised that Britain is not as far away from the EU as Canada, and has changed his mind.

As the world economies try to recover from coronavirus, these talks will be a test of whether the EU puts ideological and economic protectionism above the greater good of humanity.