Will Brexit happen? Shropshire Star poll reveals concerns on UK’s ability to strike deal

A Shropshire Star poll today reveals deep concerns over the Government's ability to deliver on Brexit.

More than 1,100 readers were questioned in the shropshirestar.com survey.

Of those polled, 73 per cent said they believed the UK would fail to leave the EU in March 2019 as planned.

Confidence in the Government's handling of the negotiations with the EU seems to be even lower, with 86 per cent saying they were unhappy with the way the UK was conducting negotiations.

Just 20 per cent said they felt optimistic that 2018 would bring progress on Brexit as talks between the UK and the EU move to a new stage.

Crunch negotiations on trade are due to begin next month.

Shropshire overwhelmingly voted for Brexit, but the survey results reflect concerns among the British public about the process.

Pro-Brexit MPs in Shropshire today insisted negotiations were going well and that Britain would be better off outside the EU.

Shrewsbury and Atcham MP Daniel Kawczynski said he expected other European nations to follow the UK's example in the future.

He said: “I’m very positive that in the next year we will have thrashed out a very effective and mutually beneficial new relationship with the EU.”

Mr Kawczynski and Lucy Allan, who represents Telford, said 2018 promised to be an exciting year that would see Britain forge a new trading relationship with the rest of the world.

Mr Kawczynski said the deal that Britain negotiated with the EU over the next 12 months could form a template for other European nations to follow.

“We have a trade deficit with the EU of £80 billion a year, so it’s in the EU’s interest that it secures and effective trade agreement with the United Kingdom, we are going to be the EU’s single largest customer,” he said.

Mr Kawczynski said once the deal was agreed, it was likely to be watched closely by other European nations.

He said the eight members of the EU which were not members of the eurozone could find themselves under increasing pressure to join the single currency in years to come as the EU sought to establish a more closely linked superstate.

“A lot of these countries will be looking at what has happened in the UK, outside of the EU,” he said.

“I’m confident we are not going to be the only country to leave the EU over the next 10 to 20 years.

“A lot of countries will be looking for a relationship with the EU like that of the UK, where we have close co-operation without the strait-jacket that is imposed on us at the moment.

Mr Kawczynski believed the EU would ultimately agree a deal with the UK because it would lose the £39 billion severance payment if it did not do so.

He added that if Britain was refused access to the single market, tariffs on EU imports would generate £12 billion for the British government, while the tariffs on exports would be just £5 billion. The surplus generated could be used to provide short-term subsidies for key industries in Britain such as car manufacturing, he said.

Ms Allan said good progress had been made during 2017 on delivering Brexit, despite the considerable and perhaps inevitable obstacles along the way. “It’s encouraging to see that we can now move on to the negotiation of our new trading relationship,” she said.

“We will see a good deal for Britain finalised in the next 12 months or so. “We will continue to see those who seek to derail Brexit keep up their efforts, but their influence will diminish as progress continues to be made.

“We have a Prime Minister determined and resolute and who has shown she can deliver on Brexit in Britain’s interests and I have every confidence she will continue to do so in 2018.”

Mr Kawczynski said as a permanent member of the UN security council and one of the biggest military powers in Europe, Britain would continue to play a major role in the defence of Europe through its membership of Nato.

He added that when he became an MP in 2005, 54 per cent of British exports were to the European Union, but this had now fallen to 41 per cent.

“If you talk to the chief executive of Dyson he has said that 90 per cent of new orders are now coming from outside the EU,” said Mr Kawczynski. “Ninety per cent of world growth is coming from outside the EU. That is the future for British trade.”

Yes to EU deal, but beware terms, says former councillor

Former councillor Bill McClements, a prominent Remain campaigner at the referendum, believes Britain will agree a trade deal with the EU during 2018 – but thinks many eurosceptics will be disappointed by its terms.

Mr McClements said the concessions Theresa May has already made to the EU showed that the Prime Minister was prepared to compromise, and he saw little reason for this to change over the coming year.

"It is highly likely that we will have a deal by the end of 2018, because everyone knows that a "No Deal" would be a disaster for the UK," said the former Labour member of Telford & Wrekin Council.

"The PM and the Treasury know this, even Brexiteers know this but can’t admit to it.

"That is why the government has avoided, so far, releasing the risk assessments about Brexit – they wouldn’t make good reading."

But Mr McClements said securing a deal in the given time frame will force the UK Government to make many compromises.

"Theresa May has shown she is prepared to compromise," he said.

"For stage one she and the cabinet moved very close to the EU starting position."

Mr McClements said the picture will be clear by the end of 2018, but a transition period would be crucial for implementation.

He believed that the deal would see the UK leave the EU and the European Single Market, but remain in the Customs Union, which would restrict Britain's ability to strike deals with non-EU countries.

"We will have access to the Single Market but will have to make future annual payments to the EU," said Mr McClements, adding that there was likely to be a "fudge" on freedom of movement and the role of the European Court.

"Businesses will still get the EU workers they want, with some form-filling," he said.

"We will have our court, but in reality the European Court will have the final say on our business with the EU."

Mr McClements said the likelihood was that the compromises required for the trade deal would satisfy neither those who voted to leave or remain in the EU.

"As we move through 2018 many UK voters will become disillusioned with politics again, few will be happy with the outcome," he said.

"Many of those who voted for Brexit, the story of an easy life outside the EU will feel let down.

"They will become more aware of the downward squeeze on our living standards, and they will see no change in immigration from Asia and the rest of the world, while we will still have many coming from EU countries.

"Those who voted Remain will feel they should have been listened to – our economy will be weaker, we will have more bureaucracy not less to cope with, and many other important government policy issues – such as adult social care, the health service – will not be resolved because Brexit has got in the way.

"But we will have blue passports and Nigel Farage will be about to enjoy a large EU pension as well as receiving a £150,000 pay off. Who has benefited from all of this?"