Constituency profile: Montgomeryshire - Lib Dems fighting to regain lost ground

Each day this week we're profiling the six constituences that make up the Shropshire Star region; Telford, Wrekin, Shrewsbury, Ludlow, North Shropshire and Montgomeryshire. Today we look at Montgomeryshire.

Montgomeryshire has traditionally been a safe haven for the party, and prior to 2010 it had been a Lib Dem seat for all but 17 of the preceding 130 years.

However, Lembit Opik's 13-year spell as MP for the constituency – which forms the northern part of Powys and is home to the sumptuous medieval Powis Castle – came to a close in 2010, as Conservative candidate Glyn Davies toppled him with a majority of 1,184 votes.

Results from 2010:

GLYN DAVIES (Con) 13,976

Lembit Opik (Lib Dem) 12,792

Heledd Fychan (Plaid Cmyru) 2,802

Nick Colbourne (Lab) 2,407

David Rowlands (Ukip) 1,128

Milton Ellis (Nat Front) 384

Bruce Lawson (Ind) 324

Conservative majority 1,184

Turnout 69.4 per cent

• The Montgomeryshire seat is based on similar boundaries to the historic county of the same name. It is named after the county town Montgomery, which in turn took its name from one of William the Conqueror’s main counsellors, Roger de Montgomerie, who was also the first Earl of Shrewsbury.

• Traditionally, the seat has been a stronghold of liberalism in the Welsh countryside, but fell into the hands of the Conservatives when Glyn Davies triumphed at the last election.

• Among the most infamous of MPs to have held the seat was its last incumbent, Lembit Opik. His regular media appearances included outings on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, he wrote a column for the Daily Sport, and he dated celebrities including weather presenter Sian Lloyd and Cheeky Girls singer Gabriela Irimia.

• Another former holder of the Montgomeryshire seat was Liberal Party leader Clement Davies, who served the constituency from 1929 until 1962, and who led the party from 1945 to 1956 – a period when the party’s fortunes were at their nadir, with only a handful of MPs and members defecting to Labour and the Tories.

• Alex Carlile was Opik’s predecessor in Montgomershire. Seen by some as a potential leader of the party, he stood down in 1996 to care for his sick daughter. He was made a life peer in 1999.

• The seat is home to around 49,000 voters.

Now the Liberals are hoping to win the seat back, and have in recent months sent party bigwigs including Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, and former leader Paddy Ashdown on to the patch in support of candidate Jane Dodds.

"The most interesting seat in the Shropshire Star's patch looks like Montgomeryshire," said Alex Donohue of bookies firm Ladbrokes.

"Plenty of local punters are banking on it being one of the few Lib Dem gains following Lembit Opik's loss last time."

The Conservatives remain the favourites for the seat, however, with odds of 1/3 in favour of Mr Davies, with Ms Dodds not too far off the pace at 9/4.

Ukip are outsiders at 50/1, with Labour and Plaid Cymru both further out at 100/1.

A former social worker who has worked with refugee and trafficked children during her career, Ms Dodds originally comes from Wrexham.

She served as a cabinet member on Richmond Council in London as a Liberal Democrat, and has now moved to Welshpool where she will focus on her campaign.

The politician seeking re-election is a Montgomeryshire man. Mr Davies was born in the constituency and went to Castle Caereinion Primary School and Llanfair Caereinion High School.

He was chairman of Montgomeryshire District Council between 1985 and 1989, and Conservative Assembly Member for the Mid and West Wales region from 1999 to 2007.

His victory in 2010 followed an unsuccessful campaign in 1997.

Other parties have rarely made a dent in the Conservative and Liberal share of the vote in the past, and Plaid Cymru was in third place last time out, with its 2,802 votes leaving the party almost 10,000 behind second-placed Opik.

Labour's Martyn Singleton, Ukip's Des Parkinson, Richard Chaloner of the Green Party, and Plaid Cymru will be hoping to have more of an impact this time out – although the party has yet to appoint a replacement for its original candidate, Gwynfor Owen.

With discussions ongoing over the long-term provision of A&E services in Shropshire and Mid Wales, healthcare is likely to prove as vital an issue in Montgomeryshire as it is back across the border.

Agricultural issues will also be in the spotlight, with issues such as milk prices and bovine TB causing headaches for farmers in the predominantly rural patch.

A shake-up of education in Powys will similarly be on the agenda. And, once again, transport in its various forms across the patch will be a common theme for discussions on the doorsteps.

Bus and rail services linking the more rural parts of the constituency with the bigg er towns in Shropshire are of serious concern to many of the 50,000 voters in Montgomeryshire, and candidates will be expected to deliver a positive message on the future of local services.

• Keep up with all the Shropshire and Mid Wales election news at www.shropshirestar.com/election

The Liberal Democrats clearly see Montgomeryshire as a target seat at the election.

But it's fair to say the popularity of the party as a whole has suffered badly during its time as the junior partner in the governing coalition. In last year's European elections, the party's share of the vote fell from 14 per cent to six per cent, and polls suggest that the Lib Dems have made up little ground since then.

So Montgomeryshire stands to be one of the more closely-contested seats across Shropshire and Mid Wales this spring. Can the Liberals regain some lost ground? Or could Glyn Davies become the first Conservative to retain the seat since Charles Watkin Williams-Wynn stood down in 1880?

Meet the candidates:

Six parties will be hoping to take control of the Montgomeryshire seat at this year's election, with Conservative Glyn Davies seeking re-election.

As well as the five parties which will be well represented in campaigns throughout England, the Welsh-focused party Plaid Cymru will also be hoping to make ground in Montgomeryshire, having finished third to the Conservatives and Liberals last time out – albeit by a fairly substantial margin.

Mr Davies seized the seat in 2010 from Lembit Opik, having been well-known in the local area in a number of political roles leading up to that moment.

Having entered Montgomeryshire District Council in 1980, he was chairman from 1985 to 1989, and a Member of the National Assembly for Wales in the Mid and West Wales region from 1999 until 2007.

He stood in the 1997 election, but lost out to fellow debutant Opik by more than 6,000 votes.

However, when he returned for another attempt in 2010, he dethroned his high-profile opponent with a majority of just under 1,200 votes.

A farmer who was brought up in the area and spent his early working life running the family farm near Castle Caereinion, Welshpool, he still lives locally, at Berriew.

Hoping to recapture the seat for the Liberal Democrats is Jane Dodds, who has worked in the public sector for more than 20 years as a child protection social worker.

Although she is originally from Wrexham, she entered politics on Richmond Council in London, serving on cabinet positions.

In her working life she has also worked with refugee children and trafficked children.

Her work, she says, has partly informed her social policies, and she says she is "committed to a society that protects those who are vulnerable and need our support".

The seat is likely to be contested by candidates from six mainstream parties – although Plaid Cymru's candidate Gwynfor Owen has withdrawn for health reasons, and a new candidate has not yet been named.

Richard Chaloner is to stand on behalf of the Green Party in the Mid Wales seat, and has said he intends to use his role to protect local services.

The NHS is one of his key priorities – and it's certainly a common one among candidates, with the two favourites both attempting to gauge public opinion with surveys of local people's opinions on the NHS and how it will serve Montgomeryshire residents.

The Greens last contested the seat in 1997, and also fielded a candidate in 1992, and are now re-entering the race after seeing a pick-up in membership in the last year.

Environmental and social issues will be key to the Green Party's local campaign.

Labour will be represented in the constituency by Martyn Singleton in the election, although he starts the campaign with sinificant ground to make up having finished fourth last time, while another first-time entrant, Des Parkinson, has signed up to represent Ukip in the May 7 poll.

• Follow the campaign six days a week in the Shropshire Star newspaper, round the clock on at shropshirestar.com/election where we will carry breaking news and by signing up to our email newsletter.