Wet winter to make way for ‘glimmers of sunshine’ over the weekend

The intense storms and dull skies of a dreary winter are to make way for warmer temperatures and sunshine over the next few days, forecasters said.

The UK has experienced a “lack of sunshine” over the winter months this year, having had just 70% of its average sunshine so far.

With one week left of winter, forecasters are expecting milder conditions and even “glimmers of sunshine” this weekend.

The Met Office has said the south of England could expect temperatures of up to 15C at the start of next week during the day.

Saturday is set up for a damp start in the east, with rain showers expected before things brighten up later on Saturday, with eastern England and eastern Scotland expecting a mostly dry day.

Meanwhile, forecasts indicate Sunday is expected to be a “day of sunshine and scattered showers” across the UK.

Senior meteorologist Greg Dewhurst said: “So temperatures throughout next week, by day look like to be around between 10 and 14C generally.

“Any sunnier breaks, maybe locally 15C in the south.”

It has been a wet winter in the UK, with rainfall above the average for the last 30 years, but for some it has been much wetter than others.

The meteorological winter, as used by forecasters, runs from the start of December to the end of February and the averages for rain and sun are calculated by using data from the past 30 years.

Mr Dewhurst said that this winter does not look “remarkable” until it is broken down regionally for the “big differences” across the UK to be seen.

The Met Office said that eastern Scotland has experienced 114% of its rainfall, while northern and north-western Scotland have had just 60%.

Similarly, the Midlands is on 140% of its expected rainfall while north-west England is on 90%.

Mr Dewhurst said “the next week or so will be pretty much business as usual weather” which may see the skewed averages reduce before the end of winter.

Explaining the regional split, Met Office presenter and meteorologist Alex Deakin said: “A southerly shift in the jet stream, driven by the freezing conditions across North America, pushed low‑pressure systems further south than usual.

“Combined with a blocking pattern that caused these systems to stall, this set up a semi‑permanent south‑easterly flow into the UK.

“As a result, rain has been funnelled in from the surrounding seas into the south-west of England, eastern Scotland, and the east of Northern Ireland, while western parts of Scotland have been notably drier than normal.”

The Met Office also said that climate change provides “important context” for the wetter weather, and that projections indicate a greater likelihood of intense storms like those seen this year.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, approximately 7% more for every degree Celsius of warming. This means that when it does rain, downpours can be heavier and more intense, the forecaster explained.