Step one: easing of the restrictions. Step two: people enjoy the easing of the restrictions, celebrate that things are getting back to "normal", and become less vigilant in following social distancing and regularly washing their hands. Step three: Covid-19 cases start to rise again. Step four: new lockdowns.
Hot weather has arrived again and the plea is out there for people to be sensible. A pub in Stone, Staffordshire, welcomed in folk – and then saw cases.
McDonald's has also closed in Great Bridge in the West Midlands because of cases, even though the local health director says McDonald's has good infection control.
Shropshire has yet to see any spikes, but coronavirus does not respect borders, so nobody should be complacent.
Humans are generally sociable creatures, so opening the doors to pubs, restaurants, and so on was always going to be a test of social discipline.
And it is not unreasonable to assume that after a drink or two people may not be as fussed about social discipline as they might be.
Also, young people who flock to bars and pubs may feel that they are at lower risk from the disease – which statistically, in terms of mortality, is true.
All they want is some fun and at last they have the chance to let their hair down a bit. They do however have a wider responsibility to society. The simple equation is that those who are infected can infect others, and the others who are infected may be far less resilient in being able to resist the virus.
In places across Europe there is evidence of spikes. The Government has ruined many a Spanish holiday because of the fear that returning holidaymakers could cause a coronavirus comeback here.
Not that it has gone away in the first place. People continue to die, and many others continue to fight private battles against this terrible disease in their hospital beds.
A nationwide disaster is evolving into numerous local battles, with the testing system used to identify and isolate local hotspots.
Everybody has their part to play. Hard though it may be, doing what is reasonable and right in the Covid-19 battle is a moral duty.