Matt Maher: Beating Fulham would boost Aston Villa in both Premier League and Europa League quests

The equation for Villa is simple.

Win two of their remaining five Premier League matches and Unai Emery’s men will be back playing in the Champions League next season.

In reality, it probably won’t even require that much. Though there is no set of results which could see Villa guarantee a top-five finish by the end of the weekend, beating Fulham on Saturday would leave them with one foot and four toes over the line.

Indeed, any win between now and the end of the season would mean no team still with a mathematical chance of catching them could afford another defeat. Victory over the Cottagers, who sit 12th in the table and 13 points behind, would knock them out of the chasing pack.

In basic terms, Villa are in a position they could only have dreamed of when they first faced Fulham back in September, still searching for a first league win of the season.

Emery will now be eager to finish the job, soon as possible. With four weeks of the season to go, his team are still fighting on two fronts. Securing an early victory on one, ensures the best possible chance of succeeding on both.

While victory on Saturday would not completely seal the deal, it would leave Villa in the best place possible to fully attack next week’s Europa League semi-final first leg against Nottingham Forest.

For all that the past month has seen a renaissance, with Villa winning six of their last eight matches in all competitions, it has also prompted questions about squad strength and just who can be trusted in the kind of high-pressure environment in which both semi-final legs will be played.

The importance of John McGinn, were it ever in question, was laid bare by the dramatic drop-off following the skipper’s substitution in last weekend’s 4-3 win over Sunderland, at a point when his team were cruising to victory.

His replacement, Jadon Sancho, was responsible for the kind of errors which would make a manager think twice about using the same player again in a fixture with so much on the line. The same applies to Leon Bailey, following a less-than-stellar cameo in Bologna earlier this month.

Essentially, Emery has no-one who can replicate what McGinn and Youri Tielemans, another player whose return from injury has helped rejuvenate the side, provide in terms of quality and temperament. Ross Barkley has done well when called upon but is not part of Villa’s Europa League squad.

Getting the primary season aim of Champions League qualification as good as in the bag before the semi-final, therefore, significantly reduces any concerns Emery - who always views the Premier League as the priority - might have about the need to manage minutes for his star men.

Villa will be a hard team to stop should Ollie Watkins continue his current form. The striker has scored six goals in five appearances since being omitted from last month’s England squad and Craven Cottage has previously proven a happy hunting ground.

Watkins has scored three times in his last two visits, with Villa winning both. A repeat on Saturday would put them on the cusp of a Champions League return.