Telford general election guide 2017 - Will swing seat see another big surprise?

It was the big surprise on election night in 2015, in a seat that had appeared safe.

Not only that, Lucy Allan has claims to be the first female MP in Shropshire since 1929.

But Labour have launched a major offensive to win it back.

First created when the Wrekin constituency was split, Telford has been held by Labour and previous holder David Wright had been in the seat since 2001.

But now the party is making a major play to paint Telford red again.

After stepping down as Telford & Wrekin Council leader in 2016, Malinslee ward councillor Kuldip Sahota has been selected as the party's candidate and is using the ongoing dispute on hospital services as his main policy to win over voter support.

But he remains somewhat of an unknown quantity, having never stood as an MP before.

And Labour clearly see Telford as the one to win, with leader Jeremy Corbyn making a personal appearance in the borough on the campaign trail, again extolling the party's plans to protect the NHS and the importance of keeping two acute hospitals in Shropshire.

Ms Allan, a big supporter of Britain's exit from the EU will be hoping that anti-Corbyn feeling and the big swell of support for Prime Minister Theresa May will swing in her favour.

In the EU Referendum, there were 56,649 votes for Leave and 32,954 votes for Remain in Telford from a turnout of 72.15 percent with at total of 89,704 votes cast.

And Ms Allan will no doubt be hoping that majority, and hopes of productive Brexit talks will stand her in good stead.

And the odds are looking good for her to retain her seat and bookmakers initially put her odds at 1/10.

She is now at 1/6 to win, with Labour at 3/1.

All other parties remain rank outsiders, with Ukip and the Liberal Democrats both 100/1 and the Greens at 500/1, so bookies at least see it as very much a two horse race.

It is a change from 2015, when Ukip candidate Denis Allen was seen as a genuine contender.

It was the final Shropshire seat to declare on the night - and one that Labour activists at the count at Telford College of Arts and Technology had feared since earlier in the night.

Ms Allan was elected by a majority of 730, receiving 16,094 votes.

She beat of competition from Mr Wright, with 15,364 votes, Denis Allen for UKIP with 7,330 votes, Ian Croll for the Liberal Democrats, with 927 votes and Peter Hawkins for the Green Party who picked up 930 votes.

The turnout was 61.78 per cent, with 40,875 votes cast.

After beginning his time in parliament with a majority of 8,383 in 2001, Mr Wright won by 5,406 votes in 2005, but then only 978 in 2010, scraping past Conservative candidate Tom Biggins.

The turnout in Telford is traditionally low by Shropshire’s standards, too, so there remains potential to sway disaffected voters who have previously steered clear of the ballot box.

With Telford's population on the rise, and investment pouring into the town from various sources, the issue of providing housing stock and development land will continue to be high on the agenda.

Bruce Grocott, the former Wrekin MP, became the first person to win the Telford seat in 1997, winning with a majority of more than 11,000.

He stepped down in 2001 when he was elevated to the House of Lords.

With so many issues at work, it is hard to make a firm prediction for how this seat will play out come May 8.

With Telford turn red again or will Tory Telford stay blue for the next five years?

Meet the candidates

Lucy Allan – Conservative

Conservative Lucy Allan has held the seat since her somewhat surprise victory in 2015.

Ms Allan, a former Durham University student, spent the early part of her career working as a chartered accountant with PWC, before undertaking a Masters degree in employment law and setting up an advocacy and advice service for employees, Workplace Law Ltd.

She previously held councillor positions in London. A vocal Brexiteer she will be hoping that “strong and stable” Conservative rhetoric will stand her in good stead in the upcoming election, particularly in Telford which had a large majority vote to leave.

In Parliament she has spoken out about trade and the issue of child sexual exploitation in Telford.

Despite her opponent’s claims that this election is a referrendum on the future of the hospitals in Telford, Ms Allan has also been keen to see services retained at the Princess Royal Hospital. She has also previously described herself as “a traditional Conservative who believes in helping people help themselves”.

Kuldip Sahota – Labour

The man hoping to win Telford back for Labour is Kuldip Sahota. The Malinslee ward councillor for Telford & Wrekin, he held the council’s leadership for five years, during which time he oversaw the Southwater development, the council’s solar farm and helped secure the future of MoD Donnington.

He has said this is an election which he is fighting by “policies not personalities” and despite Labour’s poor standing so far in the opinion polls, he will be hoping that his hyper-local campaign will win over voters. Mr Sahota has said that it was his concern about the future of the hospitals which encouraged him to come forward for the election and he has the backing of former Telford MPs David Wright and Sir Bruce Grocott.

Luke Shirley – Green Party

Hoping to win over Telford’s young electorate is Luke Shirley. The 27-year-old teacher is the Green Party’s nod for the seat. An outsider according to the bookies, he has recently become a father for the first time.

Luke has a particular interest in education policy and is keen to engage young voters across Telford in the General Election. He has said he is keen to talk to students about the party’s policies for them.

Susan King – Liberal Democrat

Not much has yet been revealed about Liberal Democrat candidate Susan King, but the party locally has also been vocal about the future of the hospitals and nationally is trying to make gains after poor results in 2015.

Profile: All eyes will be on this one

Telford itself has only been its own constituency since 1997. Prior to that it was part of a much larger Wrekin seat.

No matter what the name suggests, the constituency does not run along the same boundaries of the town of Telford.

It includes Priorslee, Ketley, Madeley, Dawley, and old Telford Development Corporation housing estates such as Sutton Hill, Woodside and Brookside.

The constituency has undergone huge changes over the last seven years, with the development of Southwater, extension to the International Centre, the securing of the MoD Fulfilment Centre and other major economic boosts that have made Telford a powerhouse in Shropshire.

Telford is now the most urban, industrially-focused constituency in the county, thanks in no small part to the rise of its three major industrial estates – first Halesfield, then Stafford Park and Hortonwood in the 1960s. Half a million square metres of factory space was opened between 1968 and 1983.

The number of people in employment in the borough has also rapidly increased.

Sir Bruce Grocott was the first person to hold the new Telford seat after winning by a majority of 11,290 in 1997.

He later relinquished his role as he was elevated to the House of Lords, becoming the chief whip, and paving the way for David Wright to take the reins in his home town.

Until 2015, the constituency had always been held by Labour, but that changed when Conservative Lucy Allan won the seat with a majority of 730, receiving 16,094 votes.

At the time, Ms Allan said she had been told the seat was “unwinnable”.

But there is no doubt that it is likely to be the most interesting seat to watch on June 8.

Previous election results for Telford

2015: LUCY ALLAN (Con) -16,094 David Wright (Lab) - 15,364 Denis Allen (Ukip) - 7,330 Peter Robert Hawkins (Green) - 930 Ian Phillip Croll (Lib Dems) - 927 CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY - 730

2010: DAVID WRIGHT (Labour) – 15,977 Tom Biggins (Con) – 14,996 Phillip Bennion (Lib Dem) – 6,399 Denis Allen (Ukip) – 2,428 Phil Spencer (BNP) – 1,513 LABOUR MAJORITY – 981

2005: DAVID WRIGHT (Labour) – 16,506 Stella Kyriazis (Con) – 11,100 Ian Jenkins (Lib Dem) – 4,941 Tom McCarthy (Ukip) – 1,659 LABOUR MAJORITY – 5,406

2001: DAVID WRIGHT (Labour) – 16,854 Andrew Henderson (Con) – 8,471 Sally Wiggin (Lib Dem) – 3,983 Nicola Brookes (Ukip) – 1,098 LABOUR MAJORITY – 8,383