Swedish national election too close to call

Sweden’s national election is too close to call, with preliminary results showing a very narrow lead for the left-wing opposition over prime minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing coalition.

Figures showed a three-seat lead for the opposition and former prime minister Magdalena Andersson’s bid to return to office at the head of the left coalition.

But Mr Kristersson also said he would explore “possibilities” given the close result.

With 94% of the vote counted early on Monday, the Swedish Election Authority reported the four opposition parties were heading for 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, against 173 seats for the government alliance.

The outcome of the election may not be decided until Wednesday, when local election boards count early votes that did not make it to the polling stations by election day. This includes, among others things, overseas votes.

Ms Andersson told supporters that “we must wait for the final election result” but added that “right now we are leading … But we have to wait for the final result”.

Mr Kristersson has led Sweden since 2022 with a three-party centre-right coalition. It relied on outside support from the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party that has far-right roots but has moved toward the political mainstream, for a parliamentary majority.

The Sweden Democrats had been promised cabinet posts this time if the governing coalition is returned to office.

“When we have the final result it’s a good idea to look at possible combinations,” Mr Kristersson said, adding that “there is a very clear non-socialist majority, or non-left leaning economic majority in the Swedish parliament. And I will actually take note of that and at least figure out whether there are any possibilities”.

The Sweden Democrats’ leader Jimmie Åkesson said that “we will not know tonight” who will form the next government.

The party’s support slipped to just under 18%, down about three percentage points from its 2022 result, and it fell from second to third place.

Exit polls from public broadcaster SVT had initially shown the left-wing parties ahead by several percentage points.

The exit polls set off jubilation at the Social Democrats’ election gathering, but the mood shifted as the results indicated a closer race.

The centre-left Social Democrats have led most Swedish governments since the Second World War. Ms Andersson served as prime minister from 2021 until she lost power at the last election. To return to office she would have to seal a coalition agreement with other parties.

There are two major political blocs in Sweden: one with four parties on the right and another with four parties on the left.

So the big question is less about which party wins and more about which side can form a majority. Individual parties need a minimum of 4% of the vote to win parliamentary seats.

With broad political consensus in Sweden on several major issues such as support for Ukraine and the country’s decision to join Nato, much election discussion focused on the possibility of the anti-immigration hard-right entering government.

The Sweden Democrats’ role was in focus against a background of gains for the populist right in Europe, including the first-place finish by the far-right Alternative for Germany party in a regional election in that country on September 6.

The Sweden Democrats were founded in the 1980s by people who had been active in right-wing extremist groups, including neo-Nazis.

They toned down their rhetoric and expelled openly racist members under Mr Åkesson, who has led them since 2005 and overseen their growth from what was once a marginal party.

More than eight million people in the nation of about 10.6 million were eligible to vote.