Shropshire to outperform the UK over rest of the decade

That's the positive outlook from a major economic think-tank in the region, which foresees the county benefiting from its place in Jaguar Land Rover's supply chain.

The West Midlands Economic Forum believes that, once all the numbers are finalised, 2016 will see the final tally for the county's economic output clock in at £10.399 billion – a figure which will grow ahead of the national rate in the next three years.

The think-tank sees the total gross value added – the main measure of a local area's economic output – growing 3.6 per cent to £10.774 billion in 2017.

After that, it will grow 4.2 per cent in 2018, to £11.226 billion, before easing to 3.1 per cent growth, taking the county's combined annual output to £11.574 billion by the end of the decade.

Because that is a faster rate than is projected for the UK as a whole in the next few years, it will mean the county is playing a slightly bigger role in the national economy.

At present Shropshire's economy adds about 0.83 per cent of the UK tally, but that will rise to 0.85 per cent by 2019, the model suggests.

Economist David Hearne, who compiled the figures, said: "The challenging external conditions identified 12 months ago seem set to ease over the coming 12 months with the region's competitive manufacturing sector bolstered by the sharp depreciation of sterling that followed the vote to leave the European Union.

"A number of local developments look set to reinforce what should be a trend that benefits the entire West Midlands with its strong export base.

"In particular, the expansion and continued success of a number of large exporting firms in the wider region – notably Jaguar Land Rover – should benefit a number of Telford and Shropshire based firms in their supply chains."

The role of Shropshire in supplying Jaguar Land Rover is growing. The county already provides pressings for the bodywork of the in-demand motor manufacturer, via Stadco, while Denso makes heating, ventilation and air condition systems for the cars.

The building of the new aluminium castings plant by Stadco owner Magna International through its subsidiary Cosma, creating 300 jobs, will add to the county's links to the UK's automotive success story.

But manufacturing is not the whole story, and the service sector is actually the dominant part of the Shropshire and Telford & Wrekin economies.

Mr Hearne said: "On the services side, Telford's continued rapid development looks set to benefit the retail and wholesale sectors, with availability of competitively priced office space and good transport links ensuring the area can continue to attract businesses.

"The chief risks we identify to this positive outlook are skills shortages, as the region's labour market is already approaching full capacity, Brexit-related uncertainty and the ongoing dearth of infrastructure investment.

"Longer-term growth is likely to depend heavily on the specific terms and trading relationships established by the UK following exit from the EU and as such, any forecasts beyond 2019 are inevitably speculative."

Per head of population, the county's economy is set to grow by 3.3 per cent this year, 3.9 per cent in 2018, then 2.8 per cent in 2019 to leave GVA per capita at £19,065.