Matt Maher: It’s far too early to say Ollie Watkins won’t make the Euro 2024 cut

“I think he (Toney) has booked his place on the plane,” remarked former England international Jill Scott after the Brentford forward had netted his first international goal in Tuesday night’s 2-2 draw with Belgium. Her fellow pundit Joe Cole concurred, along with many others who have spoken or written on the subject since.

With two months of the season still to play and Gareth Southgate not required to name his final squad until June 8, after England will have played two warm-up matches against Bosnia and Iceland, it is an opinion which feels just a little bit premature.

That is not to say Toney did not deliver the more eye-catching moments over the international fortnight, with Watkins frustrated and starved of service having started last Friday’s 1-0 defeat to Brazil.

Yet it wasn’t as though the Villa man had a complete disaster. It was his determination to keep the ball in play which led to Jude Bellingham scoring a last-gasp equaliser against Belgium, while he also came close to setting up the Real Madrid star against Brazil with a cross which whistled across the face of goal.

Either way, making a final judgement on either Toney or Watkins on the basis of two friendly matches would be cruel and misguided.

Southgate will surely look deeper, assessing how both interact with other members of the squad, their form in training and of course their exploits at club level, where over the past seven months Watkins has hit levels rarely seen in recent years by an English striker not named Harry Kane.

Should he go on to finish the season having scored more than 30 goals in all competitions for Villa, a target which remains quite possible, it would be a very brave call for Southgate to omit a player who is also likely to be on the shortlist for the Premier League’s player of the year award.

Perhaps the biggest question is whether the England manager really has to make a decision at all?

The Toney-Watkins rivalry has been established on an assumption only one recognised striker will be chosen to back-up Kane in Germany.

But there is surely an argument for taking all three, even if Southgate and his fellow international bosses are unsuccessful in lobbying Uefa to expand the size of Euro 2024 squads to 26 from 23 (any success on that front, of course, means the debate becomes null and void).

Whatever happened to the cliched but correct view you can never have too many goalscorers?

It is not as though the trio are identical in playing style. Toney, with his ability to play with back to goal, is clearly the most similar to Kane. Yet Watkins is hardly a slouch when it comes to leading the line and while his finishing, though considerably improved, might be a notch lower on the clinical scale than the other pair, anyone who has watched Villa this season will tell you his contribution has been far more than just scoring goals.

No player has created more in this season’s Premier League than the 28-year-old, who sits level with Brighton’s Pascal Gross and Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier on 10 assists, all from open play.

And much as Watkins’ success has come in part through the insistence of Unai Emery that he remain in a central position, neither is he afraid to run the channels.

While the viewpoint he was a natural winger attempting to play as a striker has been emphatically disproved, it is also true Watkins possesses qualities required to play the former position. In addition to offering a point of difference to Kane and Toney, he might also offer a more productive threat than the inconsistent Marcus Rashford, or even the too-often-injured Jack Grealish.

These are the arguments Southgate must weigh up over the next two months and Premier League form will obviously be an influence.

Any attacking player who hits a hot streak is going to help their cause, just as those who go off the boil may be at greater risk of missing out.

It is difficult not to view this tournament as a defining one for Southgate, who boasts a record only bettered by Sir Alf Ramsey but who still has to convince the critics he has what it takes to get England over the line when it matters.

Those who believe his tenure has run its course point to the perceived quality of the current Three Lions crop.

When it comes to attacking options, there can be little dispute Southgate is blessed but the same cannot be said about a defence which is again likely to have Harry Maguire, often unfairly maligned but not without obvious faults, starting at its heart.

It is possible Germany will represent Southgate’s last hurrah regardless of the outcome. Certainly, anything less than reaching the semi-final and expected date with co-favourites France would be seen as a failure.

Yet even should England be triumphant and claim just their second major trophy, Southgate may see it as the chance to go out on a high. Eight years is a long time to spend in the nation’s top job.

He will not be blind to the importance of the months ahead and decisions on who makes the squad are unlikely to be rushed. Regardless of media narrative, it would be a surprise if either Toney or Watkins could be guaranteed of anything yet.