Analysis: Dare to dream as Aston Villa edge closer to the promised land

Further twists are inevitable and not all of them will be in Villa’s favour, yet with just 12 matches remaining they are undoubtedly right in the race.

No matter how much Emery might continue to play down their chances in public, the head coach, his players and fans are increasingly starting to believe. The message urging the latter to “keep dreaming” was written by the Spaniard in the programme, before his team delivered a performance to ensure they will do precisely that.

Saturday’s win felt confirmation Villa are over the blip which briefly sparked fears their campaign might be fizzling out. It was the first time since December they have recorded back-to-back league victories and they have now won three of their last four league matches, playing decently in each. They have also scored 12 goals over that run, with an attack which briefly went off the boil in January sizzling once more. This win was reminiscent of many at home during the first half of the season with Villa, a mid-match wobble aside, pushing past lower table opposition with relative ease.

They scored four but might and probably should have had more, Youri Tielemans striking the post and Forest goalkeeper Matz Sels denying Morgan Rogers a maiden Premier League goal in stoppage time.

Villa have now netted 56 times in 26 league matches, 20 more than United. In a season where they have already broken a few club records, Emery’s men are on course to become the first Villa team since the Gerry Hitchens-inspired 1960-61 vintage to average more than two goals a game over an entire campaign. No Villa team has managed it in the top division since 1933.

With Ollie Watkins now just six away from becoming the club’s first player since Peter Withe to notch 20 in a top flight season, it is likely two of his team-mates will also end the term in double figures.

Douglas Luiz needs just one more after his brace took his tally to nine, while Leon Bailey is just one further back having netted Villa’s nerve-easing fourth on Saturday after two quickfire goals either side of half-time had briefly brought Forest back into the contest.

The Jamaica international was electric throughout, terrorising makeshift left-back Moussa Niakhate from the first whistle. While it is difficult to find a player Emery hasn’t improved in his 16-month reign, none has made greater strides than Bailey, who is playing with a level of confidence typically the preserve of the game’s very best.

On Saturday, he timed everything to near perfection, nipping around Forest centre-back Murillo and then sliding a pass through the legs of another defender to set up Watkins’ fourth-minute opener.

It was Bailey who then sent Matty Cash scampering into the box in the build-up to Luiz’s first and then, after the Brazilian had headed his second from a John McGinn cross, he was on hand to convert into an empty net when Sels denied Watkins at close range. All of this was achieved, it later transpired, despite the fact Bailey was suffering with a nasty cold. In many ways, that sums up this Villa team. No matter what obstacle is thrown in their way, they find a way around it.

Emery’s “no excuses” culture was tested most acutely here when Pau Torres was forced off at half-time and Calum Chambers entered the fray for just his fourth appearance of the season and first in the league.

The 29-year-old, who turned down offers to leave the club last summer and again in January despite being told he was surplus to requirements, was quickly caught off-guard when Morgan Gibbs-White ran in behind and chipped the ball over Emi Martinez to reduce Villa’s advantage, first dented when Niakhate bundled home seconds before the break to a single goal.

But though Anthony Elanga then shot wide after breaking through, Villa’s patchwork backline – with Clement Lenglet playing alongside his fourth different central defensive partner in 12 matches – generally held firm and there were few other scares. Concern for Torres prevented this from being a perfect day and Emery must hope initial confidence the issue is not serious is confirmed by a scan.

The head coach will also be troubled by his team’s tendency to concede sloppy goals. Just as at Fulham the previous weekend, Villa made the second half far more frantic than necessary and while their response to both challenges demonstrated impressive mental fortitude, the preference would be for the latter to be tested only so much as it needs to be. This was also the fourth consecutive home league match in which they have conceded from a set-piece.

Negatives, however, are comfortably outweighed by positives. The more you watch Villa, the more you begin to believe dreams really can come true.