We’re all doomed – digitally speaking

This is one of my pet theories, along with punk being a media invention.

The internet is heading for a big crash. I predict, here and now, that in 30 years it will have gone. Kaput. Over.

If I am proved wrong, you are free to come and tell me. And if I'm not around, kindly lay flowers.

Actually, I might be generous in giving it 30 years as even when it is working properly, it is creaking. It is a Wild West world in which the sheriff is several days' ride away, although in truth the sheriff rarely bothers to get on his, or her, horse in the first place.

The scams online are so numerous and widespread that it's pointless reporting them to the police.

If every one of the internet crimes was reported to the police, the figures for reported crime for fraud, attempted fraud, and attempted theft, would go through the roof. It's one huge playground for criminals who can rob victims thousands of miles away with impunity.

For decent people using the internet their protection comes from the shoal effect. That is, there are so many potential victims, that the odds are that it will not be them.

Cyber attack

But I digress, because this is not why I think we are digitally doomed.

In the wake of the Salisbury nerve agent attack, there was discussion of ways to punish Russia. One of them was to launch a cyber attack. It doesn't appear to have happened.

After the shooting down of an American drone by Iran, the Americans have launched a cyber attack against Iranian defence systems.

The point is this. The internet is the battlefield of tomorrow.

It's peaceful now, as so far there have only been one or two very minor skirmishes. There will have been live fire internet weapons tests too. We probably don't know much about those, as they would have been limited in extent so that the military does not show its full capability and give adversaries the chance to build effective cyber defences.

At some point there could be a trigger which will see the military unleash something like its full capability in a modern form of warfare with the attraction for political leaders that they can comfort themselves that they are not killing anybody.

We've seen what a few bored and mendacious teenagers can do on their laptops. But we ain't seen anything yet.

Once the military gets going, with sustained, determined, concerted, and smart internet attacks, civilian systems will crash. The only internet which will survive will be in military spheres.

Security

Time and time again we have seen that internet security is pathetic, and years behind in its ability to keep abreast of the severity and inventiveness of the threats. Trying to keep up requires constant effort, and is difficult and expensive, and if you think "it will probably never happen" the incentive is lacking.

Had Britain launched a cyber attack against Russia after Salisbury, you can bet your bottom dollar that Russia would be likely to launch a retaliatory strike against Britain. And once America gets involved...

If you don't accept any of that, we're digitally doomed in another sense.

We are moving to what has been described as a digital dark age which will mean future historians trying to tell the story of the 21st century will have nothing to go on.

All the email correspondence which shaped key decisions will have disappeared, and there will be no photos as they have all been deleted, or lost on discarded hard drives of obsolete laptops.

Don't get me wrong. I like the internet.

Enjoy it while it lasts.