Shropshire Star

Why Midlands will decide our next PM

When Jeremy Corbyn returned to his old stamping ground in Shropshire at the start of the election campaign, it was much more than a sentimental journey to rediscover his roots.

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And when Theresa May launched her re-election bid, it is no coincidence that it was just 25 miles down the road in Dudley.

Because, while the south-east may be home to the capital, and the north may have its powerhouse, it will be the Midlands that decides on our next prime minister.

Labour knows it is not going to take Witney, and Mrs May knows that, even with her commanding lead in the opinion polls, Liverpool Walton is unlikely to be turning blue anytime soon. But in the key marginals of the West Midlands, there is still everything to play for. So expect to see far more high-profile visits to this neck of the woods over the coming weeks.

Of course, going into the election as an opposition party trailing in the polls, Mr Corbyn is acutely aware that the pressure is on for him to reclaim the traditional Labour heartlands that were lost to the Conservatives two years ago.

Which is almost certainly why he made Telford one of his first ports of call when campaigning began last month.

Lucy Allan stunned everybody when she took Telford for the Conservatives at the last election. The seat had been a Labour stronghold since its creation, and going into the election few people gave her much hope of defeating long-serving MP David Wright.

But her majority of just 730 makes her seat one of the most vulnerable in the country, and it is little surprise that Mr Corbyn identified it as one of his top targets during his visit to the town. But bluntly, if he doesn't win here, he won't be forming a government on June 9.

But while, on paper, the seat is on a knife-edge, both Mr Corbyn and Mrs May will be only too aware of the gulf that has grown between the two parties since the last election. In the run-up to the 2015 election, national opinion polls put the parties neck and neck; this time around the Conservatives have a lead of roundabout 20 per cent in the polls, with the bookies putting the Tories clear favourites to retain the seat at odds of 6-1 on.

Just down the B4176 rabbit run from Telford is the perennial Labour marginal of Dudley North, which has stubbornly remained Labour while all the seats around it have turned Conservative. It was here that Theresa May kicked off her unofficial election campaign when with a spot of door-knocking.

Contesting the seat once more for the Conservatives is poll veteran Les Jones, the former leader of Dudley Council who has stood at three previous general elections, as well as two elections for police and crime commissioner. Following his selection, he joked that it was the first time he was entering a parliamentary election he was expected to win, and certainly the bookies have him as the clear favourite. However, he knows only too well that his opponent, former Gordon Brown aide Ian Austin, is a tenacious campaigner who is nothing if not a survivor. In 2010, when the rest of Dudley turned blue, Mr Austin clung on with a majority of just 649, and then increased it to more than 4,000 two years ago in a three-way battle also involving the UK Independence Party.

The last election saw the whole of Shropshire and mid-Wales turn Conservative for the first time in living memory, but it has not always been so clear-cut. And if the Liberal Democrats are to have any hope of regaining their place as the third force in British politics, they will have to make inroads in what was once a fertile hunting-ground for the party.

Before the 2010 election, Montgomeryshire MP Lembit Opik was one of the most high-profile members of the Liberal Democrats, well-known for his appearances on Have I Got News For You, as well as his colourful personal life. He also led his party in the Welsh Assembly, forming a governing coalition with Labour.

Montgomeryshire, the only Welsh seat never to have been held by Labour, was once a bastion of Liberalism. Apart from four years from 1979 to 1983, when it was held by Conservative Delwyn Williams, it had been a Liberal stronghold for more than a century, but went Conservative when it was taken by Glyn Davies in 2010. Mr Davies comfortably increased his majority to 5,325 at the last election, and looks clear favourite to hold on again in what is a largely farming-based community.

Ludlow, too, is also a former Liberal Democrat seat, having been represented by Matthew Green from 2001 to 2005.

In recent decades, Shrewsbury and Atcham has been something of a bellwether seat, being Tory throughout the Thatcher and Major years, before being taken by Labour during landslide victories of 1997 and 2001. However, MP Paul Marsden caused a stir when he defected to the Liberal Democrats shortly after the 2001 election, later returning to Labour in 2005. The seat was recaptured by the Conservatives in 2005, and has since then been held by Tory Daniel Kawczynski.

One of the most interesting seats in recent elections has been the knife-edge marginal of Wolverhampton South West. Solidly Tory in the days of Enoch Powell and Nick Budgen, it turned Labour during the Blair landslide of 1997, first by Jenny Jones, and then by Rob Marris. In 2010, Tory Paul Uppal snatched the seat from Labour with a wafer-thin 691 majority, but then in 2015 Mr Marris retook the seat with an almost-as-small majority of 801. Mr Uppal will try to regain the seat on June 8, saying he has "unfinished business", and earlier this month drafted in Boris Johnson to support him on the campaign trail.

What will come as more of a shock is that some pollsters are predicting that the neighbouring Wolverhampton North East seat – held by Labour for the past 25 years – could also fall to the Conservatives. Martin Baxter, of the Electoral Calculus website has the Conservatives as slight favourites to win the seat, so it is perhaps not surprising that Labour incumbent Emma Reynolds has drawn on the support of Labour-supporting comedian Eddie Izzard and party big-gun Sir Keir Starmer to bolster her campaign.

Cannock Chase could also be an interesting battleground. Once a Labour stronghold, it was taken by controversial Conservative MP Aidan Burley in 2010. Many were surprised to see the Amanda Milling hold the seat for Tories ­– with an increased majority – in 2015, and this time around Labour has roped in Paul Dadge – a hero of the July 7 terror attack in London – to fight the seat. But while he might have raised the profile of the Labour campaign, the bookies don't hold too much hope of him winning. The Conservatives are a massive 200-1 on to retain the seat.