Could Brexit really scupper our holidays?

Well, according to the latest comments from Ryanair's outspoken chief executive Michael O'Leary, that could be the situation we are faced with in two years time if Britain presses ahead with plans to leave the European Union. And not just at Birmingham Airport, but at every airport across the UK.

“By September 2018 when your average British voter is sitting down to work out where he is going on his holidays in 2019, the two options he will have are to drive to Scotland or get a ferry to Ireland,” Mr O'Leary told a committee of Euro MPs discussing the impact of Brexit on tourism. He said if a deal had not been reached by the autumn of next year, his company would begin pulling flights out of UK airports.

Of course, O'Leary, who over the years has called for environmentalists and travel agents to be shot, boasted about bombarding customers with sales pitches, and branded his staff "lazy b*******", has never been one for understatement, and his critics have been quick to accuse the EU supporter of scaremongering. But is his threat to pull out of the UK real?

His claim is based on the fact that Britain would need to negotiate a fresh deal with the European Union about access to airports if flights to and from the continent were to be maintained after Brexit. Furthermore, Britain would no longer be part of the international agreements about flights between the EU and countries outside the EU. In other words, unless Britain agreed to remain part of the present "Open Skies" arrangement as part of the terms of Brexit, it will need to come to a fresh agreement with every country it has flights to and from.

Of course, the same applies to most trading agreements, which is the whole reason why Brexit Secretary David Davis is now locked in talks with his EU counterpart Michel Barnier about the terms of trade once Britain leaves the union, but there is one crucial difference. If Britain, the EU, and our other main trading partners cannot come to an agreement at the end of the two-year negotiation period, most industries will be able to fall back on the World Trade Organisation rules which ensure reasonably free movement of goods and services. However, WTO rules do not apply to the aviation industry,. This, at least in theory, means that if a deal cannot be agreed, then all flights to and from the UK will have to be suspended.

Jill Seymour, the West Midland Euro MP and Ukip Transport spokesman, has dismissed his claims as "ludicrous". She accused Mr O'Leary, who had been a vocal supporter of Britain remaining in the EU, of sour grapes.

“As long as the demand exists for flights to popular holiday spots like Spain, France and Greece, they will of course continue," he says.

“Mr O’Leary is merely scaremongering, and venting his frustration that he campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU – and lost." Of course, the simple solution would be for Britain to remain part of the EU Open Skies agreement after we leave the EU, but there is a fly in the ointment. Open Skies comes under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, which Prime Minister Theresa May has said Britain should withdraw from. It is a matter for debate whether Britain could continue as a member of the scheme without accepting to be bound by the ECJ, at least with regards to airspace.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling has said the Government is committed to securing "the best possible access to European aviation markets", but warned that it would take a while to reach agreement.

"I know that the aviation industry wants certainty, and quickly," he told airline bosses. "So does the Government. So does the rest of the EU. It’ll be some time yet before we can deliver that certainty. The formal negotiations have only just begun.

"It’s in the interests of all countries, and all who travel between them, that we seek open, liberal arrangements for aviation," he added.

Never one to shy away from controversy, Mr O'Leary said the only answer would be for the British Government to ignore the result of the referendum.

"The sensible outcome here is to ignore the plebiscite of 12 months ago, stay in Europe and continue to benefit from Open Skies," he said.

“We’ll be taking a lot of aircraft out of the UK in the April of 2019 and reallocating them to European regional airports and they’ll be seeing a lot more growth than they’ll know how to handle.

“Although Heathrow, thankfully, will be empty probably for a period of months.”

Willie Walsh, chief executive of International Airlines Group which owns British Airways and the Irish Aer Lingus airline, has also voiced concerns, although struck a less confrontational tone than Mr O'Leary.

He said he was confident a deal would be struck between Britain and the EU, but urged both sides involved to reach an agreement similar to the open skies set-up.

"The UK has always supported an open, liberal deregulated aviation market," said Mr Walsh.

“With policy support it ought to be relatively straightforward to agree a deal on aviation that will be ready when the UK leaves the EU."

But Mr O'Leary said that would not be possible because there was no goodwill in Europe towards Britain.

“The French and the Germans, when they have the opportunity to stick one into the British, they like nothing better,” he said.