Shropshire Star

David Cameron: How will the history books remember him

Ah, how easy it was for David Cameron as that unique selling point tripped off his tongue.

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"We are the only party offering an In-Out referendum on the European Union," he declared during the general election campaign which was just over a year ago, but seems from a different age now.

It was in the bag. Lots of dragons killed off with one swipe. Ukip sent running, Britain's place in the European Union cemented, Tory Eurosceptics quietened.

A triumph for decisive David Cameron, his place in history assured. Slippers on, pipe lit, and the next four years polishing his legacy for the history books with a few final flourishes before stepping down and handing over to a grateful successor, amid lots of backslapping and "thanks Dave, you did great."

Be careful what you wish for, they say. For politicians, it is a case of be careful what you promise. Or, to be precise, be careful in making promises that you are forced to keep and which come with an inherently unpredictable element.

And so the man who thought there was so much to learn from Tony Blair has ended up defined, like him, by one big event which all the spin in the world cannot rewrite or wash away and cleanse him of the consequences to his reputation.

The trouble for politicians who have the luck going their way is that after a while they think they are lucky. David Cameron took a chance in calling a referendum on Scottish independence. There were some unnerving moments during the campaign which suggested that there was at least a possibility it might not go as expected, but all came right in the end for Dave, and the issue was decided and seemingly put to bed. Despite the wobble, he did not take the hint.

In calling an EU referendum, what could possibly go wrong? It was an issue which had never really featured prominently in opinion polls of voters' concerns. Those polls that there were, also pointed to a majority of Britons favouring continuing membership of the EU. We can now see, with hindsight, that this was misleading. For more than 40 years Britain's EU membership had been a fait accompli, so Britons had not really thought about it, and mainstream politicians liked it that way. Mr Cameron's referendum opened Pandora's Box.

As a result of the Brexit decision which he so strongly opposed, he is leaving the stage, his part unexpectedly cut short.

David Cameron

Winston Churchill said that history would be kind to him, because he intended to write it. David Cameron's early exit deprives him of the opportunity of shaping his legacy. He is the latest in the long line of prime ministers who will be remembered in history for events often out of their control.

When that modern history does come to be written, and they get to the chapter on David Cameron's tenure at No 10, recent events have made it easier for the scribes than it otherwise might have been. Instead of having to determine what he stood for and what he achieved, all can be focused on the tumultuous events of the past few weeks. What Mr Cameron thought were his finest moments were outlined in his resignation speech, his one chance to create his political obituary.

More people in work than ever before. Gay marriage. "Building a bigger and stronger society". "Keeping our promises to the poorest people of the world".

Pleased with his work he may have been, but these sound rather thin and ill-defined compared to the battle honours of his predecessors. Margaret Thatcher gave us Thatcherism – it is a measure of her impact that her legacy can be encapsulated in a word. Tony Blair was the most successful Labour leader in history, winning three general elections. Even the tragedy of Iraq cannot remove that from the record, nor that it was on his watch that the peace process was sealed in Northern Ireland.

Coming to the positive legacy of Gordon Brown. Er... Mr Brown's time at Downing Street is an example of the importance of luck and timing. Tony Blair did for him, forcing him to wait with diminishing patience for the keys to the highest office, and then soon after Mr Brown went through the doors of No 10 the banks collapsed and he was all at sea.

David Cameron has been dogged by a feeling that nobody really knows what he stands for, or that he is really sure what he stands for himself. When it suited him in the past, he modelled himself as a Eurosceptic. Then in the referendum campaign, he transformed into the most pro-Europe Tory leader since Ted Heath.

Initiatives have come and faded. There was The Big Society. It sounded good, but nobody was really sure what it meant.

In advocating a particular course, his mantra has been that "it's the right thing to do." It saves the bother of providing supporting reasoning and detailed argument.

He has been a master tactician, an effective Prime Minister, rather than a great one. His strengths have been that he is polished, capable, formidable in Parliamentary debate, deflating opponents with an ad-libbed joke – a modern, television and multi-media politician.

It are these abilities which are the Teflon coating for somebody in high office nowadays as along the way Mr Cameron has had to ride out some tricky episodes which could have undermined the dignity of those of lesser presentational talents. These go back to the very advent of his leadership, when he was under intense pressure to clarify whether he had ever taken drugs.

More recently there has been Michael Ashcroft's unproven allegation that Mr Cameron was involved in unusual initiation practices at Oxford.

His choice of friends and colleagues has raised eyebrows. His right hand media man Andy Coulson later served a prison term in relation to the phone hacking scandal. His horse riding jaunt with Rebekah Brooks was an embarrassment.

Yet he has had some extraordinary achievements, albeit not the sort of things to capture the imagination. He was the first Prime Minister in modern history to lead a coalition government. Poor Nick Clegg became the ill-fated bride in a deadly marriage from which the Lib Dems will not recover for a generation.

In Parliament, Mr Cameron has destroyed the opposition. The Labour Party is falling apart. In contrast, the Conservative Party looks in good shape.

As he steps down, he leaves a party which has been set free from the nagging, enduring cause of discontent and latent insurrection which dogged the likes of John Major and drove him to distraction.

Brexit means Brexit, says Theresa May. And she was in the Remain camp. The Battle of Europe in the Tory party is settled.

On foreign policy achievements, Mr Cameron brought the troops home from Afghanistan, albeit leaving an uncertain long-term outcome, and the same is true of his intervention in Libya, where Islamic State is now on the shores of the Mediterranean.

Then there is the vexed question of Syria. Here David Cameron wanted to be shoulder-to-shoulder with the Americans.

But he took the issue to Parliament which was able to make its assessment in possession of the facts it needed, so far as they were known or could be disclosed. The Government motion was defeated.

This then is a hidden legacy, that he put Parliament and democracy first, and as a consequence spared Britain what could have been a messy intervention in Syria.

As the burial party gathers for Mr Cameron's Prime Ministerial career, a copy of the referendum result is being unfolded to nail to his political coffin.

The consensus at the moment appears to be that this is a warning of the hazards of being a politician too clever for your own good. Yet it is surely also a badge of honour as well. Whatever his tactical reasons were in doing so, he handed an important decision to the people and, while the result was unpalatable to him, he accepted it unconditionally.

Britain faces huge challenges, but then so too does the EU. The jury is going to be out on Mr Cameron's term until we have enough evidence on which to base the verdict.

If, in 10 years' time, Britons are saying: "I wish we were still in the EU," history will write him off as a chancer who went one gamble too far. But if they are saying: "Thank God we are not still in the EU," he will be seen as the Prime Minister who trusted democracy and handed the British people the keys to their future.

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