Star comment: Positive outlook on the economy
If you had taken the economic temperature not so long ago, you would have detected an underlying trend of pessimism.
Pessimism more or less by definition generates a lack of confidence in the future, and in business a lack of confidence hinders investment and growth decisions, making it more difficult than it would otherwise be to break free from the well of depression.
Dare we say it, but despite one or two blips, there are now signs of a more positive outlook.
Just down the M54, the JLR engine plant is stepping up production on the back of record sales of Jaguar cars. In the interconnected world of business, Shropshire suppliers will benefit from the upsurge.
New firms and new jobs are also coming to the county. It represents a vote of confidence in Shropshire as a place to live and work, and in the skills of the local workforce.
Before we get carried away, there is bad news on the unemployment front, but it is bad news with an explanation. Unemployment is up in both the Shropshire Council and Telford & Wrekin areas, with one factor being the number of people being released from work after being in temporary posts over Christmas. A seasonal factor, then, rather than being a weakness in the local economy.
House prices? They are both good news and bad news depending on whether you are buying or selling. In Shropshire, excluding Telford & Wrekin, they have gone up by an average of 6.39 per cent over one year, and in Telford, 5.61 per cent, figures which are way above inflation and underline the potential investment value of owning your own house. The flip side is that rising house prices are a dream destroyer, taking home ownership out of the reach of first time buyers.
We should be wary of making forecasts based on this varied mix of data. Modern experience has shown that even highly paid economic experts with access to sophisticated computer models can, and do, get things wildly wrong.
The only prediction that can be made with any confidence is that the next few years will bring uncertainty and change.
So rather than predictions, we can talk about impressions, and the overall impression is of a local economy which is showing distinct signs of recovery.
