As Shropshire cinema-goers queue up, popcorn in hand to see the new X-Files flick, it’s highly likely many of them won’t see the film as fiction.

A new poll shows that 48 per cent of us believe in America’s famed conspiracy theory ‘Area 51′ – which alleges that at a secret base in Nevada, the US government conducts tests on aliens and UFOs. It’s a big surprise that so many of us would sign up to this theory, on the basis of very little proof. Why is that?

Dave Cosnette from the The Cosmic Conspiracies team, who runs the popular website www.ufos-aliens.co.uk, receives an average of 300 emails a day from worldwide UFO spotters.

Many, in recent weeks, have come from Shropshire, where reports of spinning coloured lights over Tern Hill, Church Stretton, and parts of Telford are forging it a reputation as one of the nation’s UFO hotspots.

He reckons they’re definitely out there. Talking about the Area 51 conspiracy, he says: “The belief that UFOs were present at the base probably started when alleged former employee, Bob Lazar, came forward in 1989, claiming he’d seen a UFO at an area within the base called S-4.

“Lazar claimed that S-4 was used to back engineer alien technology. According to Lazar, there were nine UFOs in the hanger. It was his job to investigate the propulsion system of the craft.

However, after in-depth research, no official records of Lazar could be found, other than his name appearing in a phonebook from the base.

“Was this a case of Lazar lying or the US military removing all traces of him being on the base, once he went public with his story?”

But there’s further evidence too, according to Cosnette. “Dreamland, a documentary from the mid 90s, included an interview with a 71-year-old mechanical engineer who claimed to be a former employee at Area 51 during the 1950s,” says Cosnette.

“He claims he worked on a ‘flying disc simulator’ built to train US pilots, based on a disc originating from a crashed extraterrestrial craft. During his career at Area 51 he claimed to have worked with an extraterrestrial being whose name was ‘J-Rod’, described as a telepathic translator.”

As outrageous as this may sound, other informers have come forward claiming to have worked on cloning alien viruses at Area 51, also with the alien ‘J-Rod’.

And as for the reason so many people now subscribe to this theory? Cosnette thinks it’s down to the media, whether that’s Hollywood blockbusters such as Independence Day, TV programmes such as The X Files, or the accessibility of internet sites like YouTube where people can upload and view other people’s suspected UFO footage.

Dave Sadler, co-ordinator of the UK-based Unknown Phenomena Investigation Association, is less sure about the existence of little green men in the Nevada desert.

“I just think it’s down to testing secretive aircraft which the American government don’t want the rest of the world to see. The American government have probably let the alien conspiracy theories go a little further so the public can be a bit more imaginative, which allows them to get along with their work without hassle.”

Robin Ramsay, author of Harpenden’s Pocket Essentials book Conspiracy Theories, says it’s important to differentiate between UFOs and aliens.

“There are undoubtedly UFOs, there’s no question about that, there’s too many bits of video tape, film, too many reliable witnesses, too many pilots who have seen them for them to be denied and say they are irrational.”

He also believes there are three main reasons why people have embraced the conspiracy theory: The rise of the internet, where anyone can make a claim about any theory; the worldwide impact of the TV series The X Files; and America’s political culture which leans towards conspiracy theories because of events such as Watergate and the JFK and Martin Luther King assassinations.

Then there’s the other view. Professor Christopher French edits The Skeptic Magazine, and is scathing of the Area 51 conspiracy theory.

“The idea that the governments of the world are all involved in a huge cover-up regarding extraterrestrial visitation hardly stands up to a nanosecond’s critical scrutiny.

“Presumably the aliens wouldn’t choose to only crash their saucers (having travelled successfully across the galaxy) conveniently near to Area 51? So a cover-up would require the co-operation of all the governments and military forces of the world, without any one of the thousands of people involved speaking out.

“Any anti-American national leader in the word would be in a position to blow the whistle at any time. The conspiracy theory is complete nonsense.”

Psychologist Ciaran O’Keeffe, a presenter of hit TV show Most Haunted, understands why people are drawn to such stories.

“For some the truth is very mundane and quite boring. It makes no promises about there being an exciting afterlife or other life in the universe. For that reason people often dismiss the truth and say, ‘There must be something else.”‘

For now, with so many different opinions and no concrete evidence supporting or dismissing the theory, it remains a mystery. The truth is still out there . . . somewhere.