Education chiefs have defended the way they calculate pupil numbers and are warning that in 2020 the county could still have the same numbers as now.

They have been responding to criticism from Shropshire Council member, Peter Phillips, and other campaigners fighting school closure plans, that officers frequently refer to “falling” pupil numbers when in fact figures are bottoming out.

Tim Smith, the council’s assistant director for children and young people’s services, said: “Between 2005 and 2011 the number of primary and secondary pupils in Shropshire fell by more than 2,700.

“This led to a £10 million reduction in Government grant. Between now and 2014/15 we anticipate losing a further £5 million as a consequence of falling rolls although this may be abated to an extent by new housing.

“It is worth noting that between 2000 and 2010, when the national and local economy was much stronger, 12,000 additional dwellings were built but the pupil population fell by 3,000.

“The council’s pupil number forecasts are based on a combination of data provided by the health authorities, close monitoring of pupil numbers moving through the schools system, and the Office for National Statistics’ Sub National Population Projections for longer term projects.

“We also take into account housing forecasts including those with planning permissions and longer term site allocations.”

Mr Smith added: “It is recognised that the rate of decline in primary numbers will slow in 2011-12 and gently increase until 2017.

“By 2020 they will reach 2008 levels.

“Secondary numbers will sharply decline through until 2014/15. Combining both primary and secondary numbers will lead to numbers overall reaching their lowest level by 2014/15.

“Increases in primary school numbers will feed into secondary schools where numbers will show some growth between 2018 and 2022.

“However by 2020 the county is likely to have the same number of pupils as it does currently and long term trends informed by the ONS population projections predict that until 2030 pupil numbers are likely to remain low or decrease.”

By Dave Morris